挑战🔚结束

结束了自己的挑战，因为目标达到了。

其实没什么兴奋的。因为，又没规律地执行计划。但总算有学到了些东西。

答应自己，如果达到目的，就得答应自己做个事。赛浪那么勇，做这事。。。还真。。。难。

假期，没得休息，还得工作。没办法，项目上线，也不知道会有大问题吗。不是很想做工。想去走走了！ 我想回小岛！疫苗快快出来，我要去看海狗😄。

累。。。。先休息一会。。。再看下个目标。

想想。。。

突然很想去爬山，去海边。。。。去露营。。。

隐性亿万富翁

书面上有朋友分享了这套戏, 叫隐性的亿万富翁。故事是说，一位原本就是亿万富翁的某些公司的老板，为了证明，白手起家也可以在短期內（90天）赚到100万。要证明，只要努力，没有目标是不能达不到的。只给了他一辆车，一百美元，就把他丢去一个没人认识他的小镇。整个故事描述了他遇到的问题，如何解决，到最后，虽然没能达到100万，但那种坚持和毅力是值得学习的。这个电影，还是真人真事呢！

说到真人真事。。。其实。。还真有。。。。

去年年底，一个刚被裁员，现金周转不好，和朋友和哥哥借了些钱，暂时度过了难关。收到赔赏金后，就马上清完了欠下的债。剩下的一些钱，也不多，就刚好足够应付接下来的生活。那时，他在想，做了那么多年，真的一无所有。遇到困难时，就知道，其实过去都没正式看待这个问题，人生没什么目标啊。这样下去不行。

那时，有了一个想法。做一份工，想要安安稳稳地，也不行。没有任何公司会保证给你打一世的工。那，如果真的有一天，这个行业不能做了，还能生存么？

还能生存么。。还能生存么。。。。这5个字一直在脑中出现。

为了证明可以，开始给了自己一个挑战。限时是今年里，要赚100千，但条件是，那一百千里的每一分钱，都不能是从它现时的工作收入里来的。就是说，一百千里，不能有任何一分钱是从现时的工资上得到的。但可以用工作上节省到的钱去赚钱。

那时的他，其实真的是一无所有，想做些什么，没钱。开始的前三个月，就只能存钱。同时间，问自己，什么是自己最专长的，比普通人厉害的。想了想，答案很快有了。感应力强，很会做分析。那。。。这样如何可以帮得上，达到一百千的目标呢？

卖保险？ 不行，应该不是一个销售的材料。做生意？ 不行，没100%的投入，不容易成功。发明家？那个在一年内，不太可能做得到。做歌手？五音不全啦。做网红？ 太老了吧。最后，想到了一个人， George soros.。 他和warrant buffet 不一样。warrant buffet 是价值投资者，也通常是比较长远的时间。Soros 是玩货币游戏，也是很高风险，也比较快。那。。我是谁？

虽然不是一个分析员，也不是一个风险管理员，也不是精算家，但，这3个特质，都有一点点。这些特征，可以是一个很好的投资者。可以是warrant buffet 和George soros 的一半半。

最后，进过一番思考后，选择了股票，但要用数学的方式来玩。

刚开始，本钱也不多，就买了一些股，很幸运地，都赚了。后来，陆陆续续买了5 六个，都赚了。但两个多月过去了，才赚了1万，离目标还有90%纳。少许的压力下，做错了个决定，买错了个股，把所赚的都亏回去了。后来还因为，blurblur 地，按错要卖变买，又亏了1千多。算算下来，这三个月，是白投资了。一分钱都还没赚到，时间已是快7月了。

冷静了几天，决定不能再玩股票，就开始想到了call warrant。call warrant 才是唯一的机会。自己复习了以前学会的东西，看看国际财金，看看市场的动静，最后选择了bursa call warrant. 给自己定下了几个原则。

所有的买卖都得经过一轮的分析，风险，回报，目标。时常提醒自己，人多的地方就危险。人少的地方是个宝。一定要保持数学的方式，算出回报vs风险， 不能带有感情的决定。要有规律。

凭着一个脑袋，把所有的钱都丢下去了。。。

算算，要达到1百千，其实还真有50-50%机会。

这个也是个真人真实的故事，但。。。还没有结局。故事说到，主角因为要有比较高的把握肯定达到目标，又选择了另一个银行的call warrant，当没有人敢看银行时，那肯定是个机会， 他是那么认为。把一部分的资金转到了这个回报很高的银行的call warrant。故事的进展。。现在。。他以达到了70+% 的标。。。。但这些都是，纸上的数字。一天没有结局就没有输赢。

再多几个月，结局应该会有了。希望， 和哪部“隐性的亿万富翁”的结局是不同吧。

间中，还有个小插曲，那是银行设下的陷阱。虽然没有什么关系到，但可以看得出，银行里的人才，真的是蛮厉害的。如果有那么一天，银行看得起我，希望我没工作时，我可以加入他们这个精英队，呵呵~

话说回来，还忙佩服 Glenn Stearns (undercover billionaire) , 给了很多人对这世界的相信。他的毅力，坚持，都是证明了，世上无难事，只怕有心人呀！ 加油吧！

Bursa - The making of quater M

I am writing this to remind myself that, I have once "show hand" in the Bursa Call warrant share.
I will start with my analysis, and make some conclusion.

Why do I say the price can be at 9.40 when next quarter result is out?
Before even start anything, first, one must understand what is P/E ratio.
P/E is basically Price divide the Earning. Example is, if you can earn RM1 in one quarter, but if someone think that, you actually worth 3RM, then the someone will be willing to use 3RM to invest on you. This will results in 3 divide by 1, and get the PE of 3.
So, in Malaysia, different industry has different PE but will always stay at the average for each industry. Unless there is cases such as COV, and those glove counters fly like mad and the PE may increase dramatically from 50 to 70.  An average good stock will always have the PE following the market's PE if comparing the same industry.
However, bursa is a special one, as their nature of business is to earn from people transacting the share over KLSE, and charged commission on it. So, it looks like there is no reference on what PE should Bursa belong to. Thus, what we can do is to refer back to the previous quarters, to get a reference of PE. Prior to 2020, Bursa PE has an average of 28. Starting year 2020, for Quarter 1, the average PE is 30 to 35.
Thus, this is the first key figure that you need to understand in terms of predicting the price of a share.

Next, we will talk about how Bursa earn money. Our main aim is to be able to come out with the EPS (Earning Per Share). EPS formula is Earning divide number of share. Then, next is to ask how to calculate Earning. Earning is Revenue minus expenses. so, the following section explain how to get the calculation to the EPS.

The daily volume and the transact value (they called ADV - average daily trading value) is not a secret. Everyone can see and sum up the total ADV for each of the month. So, the next quarter results will be announced on either 30 July or 1 Aug. This quarter results will reflect the Profit (Earning) that happened in month of April, May, June.
Based on the ADV for April May June (2.67 + 3.35+5.16), the average is 3.726.
Comparing to the previous Quarter (month of Jan to March) which has an average ADV of 2.5. This becomes an increase in ADV of 49%. Next is to convert ADV to the Revenue.

I will use some term to describe how to calculate the revenue but it may not be the term used in the real financial world.
When I read the Bursa financial statement (page 7), I understand that, the revenue is calculated based on ADV multiply the commission fee. Bursa business has 3 types of products. Let say, we called it Product A, B, C. Those ADV that falls under Product A will have commission 0.03% (example only har), and Product B will have 0.02%, Product C will have 0.01%. By multiplying the commission with the ADV, you get the commission amount that you earned. So, if you sum up all the commission that you earn from these 3 products, that is the Revenue. However, we are not the auditor, so, we can only do a prediction on how much is falling into which product, A, B or C. The easiest way and also the conservative assumption is to compare with the previous quarter ADV. Looking at the stats given above, the ADV increase 49%. So, we can assume the % increase in ADV equal % increase in Revenue (same parallel). So, we conclude, Revenue for coming quarter will be 49% better than 1st Quarter.

We then talk about expenses, I have gone through their last 2 years (total 8 quarters results), their expenses is all within 60 - 66 M per quarter. so, with this stats, we can safely assume, the coming quarter expenses will be quite stable and normal.

The formula to calculate Earning is Revenue - Expense. So if expense is the same, Revenue = Earning. So from above, we saying Revenue increase 49%, so Earning should be also increase 49% if you understand the logic I described above. My assumption at every point above is already the most conservative assumption.

So, once we know this, we look at the last quarter EPS is 8. With 49% increase, it will become 12.
If you use the KLSE screener apps, the way they display the EPS is based on the latest 4 quarters. So, I will do the same, but actually, this kind of calculation is super conservative. looking at the last 3 quarters, the EPS are 5.6, 5.8, 8. So adding the 12 will become 31.4.
This is the annual EPS that we want.

Now, if we know Earning per share power is 31.4, if we were to maintain PE of 30. The share price must be 9.40.

So, next question is, how fast the market can reflect this into the share price?

If we see the quarter 1 results, based on the EPS, the price should be 7.5, so, you can see form the graph, end of quarter 1 is May, and the price start pick up from 6.5 to 7.5 and eventually 8.5. This pick up speed is slow because the previous quarters is not on good results.
However, this round, the upcoming quarter is proven to be the best in history for their Earning. With Q1 in positive and with all the facts, it is definitely the share price will push up to 9.40 even before the quarter result released.

Conclusion, Bursa is having the best earning in the upcoming quarter at all time. There is no reason why the price not touch 9.40. The only risk is, if the world crisis come, then that is my fate. I can only say, too bad. I start from scratch again !! haha

At the time of writing this, I already put all my money into the bursa warrant. It is too long to explain which warrant to buy now. I actually have a spreadsheet with all the predicted price with predicted premium, so that I can see all the call warrant prices at each stages, and I even calculated my profit if the price rise to what what, I will beg xxxxxx amount of money. It is not possible to teach here, so I will just give my summary advice here. Take your own risk.

1. Buy the mother share if you are super low risk taker. You will probably end up with 20-40+% profit.
2. Buy the Bursa-C27, if you are a below average risk taker, you will end up 50-100+% profit.
3. Buy the Bursa-C33, if you are above average risk taker, you will end up 100-500% profit.
4. Do like what I did, put all your money, you will end up either 0 or at least a quarter millionaire. (I am sure everyone is richer than me, so, your sai lang is definitely more than the money I throw in)
5. Don't do anything, happy reading. :)

Lastly, I know this is crazy. People all see call warrant as high risk. Sai lang on call warrant is extremely high risk! People will say I am crazy and too brave. Actually..... I should tell them, I am crazy yes! , but I am not brave. You guys who dunno how to calculate the return of call warrant or don't even know how call warrant works....... I can only salute. You guys are SUPER brave to throw money inside, buying call warrant without having any knowledge or wrong knowledge of call warrant. Isn't that true?
 

疯狂的纪录

7 月一号， 我做了人生中两件最疯狂，也最大胆的一次。虽然，一切都在我预算中，但，执行的时候，胆也要够大，还是很难。

年头的时候，我真的一无所有 （物质上）。还欠了一些债，那时刚被裁员，最后一个月没出粮，被迫和哥哥和朋友借钱。

做了几个月的contract，存了些钱，想要投资股票。很多年前，我的总投资都是负的。这次，有了比较好的规划，选了些好股，就敢敢去了。但，因为也没多少本钱，虽然投资的都赚，却不多。还很不幸的，买错了一个股，亏了这几个月所赚的。后来还很blur地，要卖变要买，白白送了两千。

冷静下来后，我决定还是相信我自己。我本就很会算。call warrant 高风险，高回报，是我喜欢的。我就是喜欢挑战这些。但，如果有很好的选择，很好的分析，我想，成功的机会会很高。我不能说我很会玩call warrant, 但我认为，我很会算，也会分析风险。

我把所有股票 都卖了。所有现金都放进了股票的户口。看着银幕，久久没有动静。之前，都分析过了，还告诉了一位朋友，现在不进等几时。当我按下那个键盘的时候。。。我所有的钱都投去买了两个call warrant。这也破了我的记录。

我show hand 了。是真的show hand。 我只剩1千块当这个月的生活费。其它的都去买这两个股了。这是我一生中第一次 赛浪， 也会是最后一次。以后不会那么大胆且疯狂了。虽然，我拥有的不多，我的show hand 的钱，对我朋友来说，是小儿科，但，要做到把所有的都投资下去。。应该没有很多人敢做。

第二个疯狂的事是，我的这两个股，都是call warrant.有玩股票的人会知道call warrant 的风险。这是我把最多的钱，买call warrant。破了我以往玩call warrant的几倍。

所以，两个加起来，“show hand 在 call warrant 上”，我相信，没有人会做得到。只有我这疯子。其实。。。我不是盲目地投资。前一晚，我把我分析的，所有的为什么，都告诉我一位朋友。但。。原来他也不完全相信。。。第二天还去问他认识的uncle，以前带他赢了几百千的，也说ok, 他才跟了我, 买了些。

半天后，果然上涨了16%。我朋友开心死了。而我，只能说，when unexpected happens, you get excited; but when expected happend, you can get excited also!

就是说，虽然都在我意料内，但，发生时，我还是会有惊喜。

一天下来，居然得了30% 的利润。我预期的，是8月到66%。一天居然达到一半了。。。

虽然，这也不能让我致富，但也很开心。期待8月的到来。

看了这文章的你。。。会不会觉得我的投资方式，有很不安全感呢？ 其实。。人生很短，偶尔疯狂下也不错。如果失败，输的也是物质上的。看得开就可以了。但，可以保证的是，这是一次，也是最后一次。

还没有套现的，还不算成功。胆，我有，狂我也有。等8月吧，就可以知道，我有没有眼光！我相信自己！